When leaders make a big call, they usually look hard at the obvious risks. Can we afford it? Do we have the people? What if the market turns? Those questions matter, but they're rarely what sinks a decision.
Decisions usually fail on something quieter: an assumption nobody stated, or a consequence in a part of the business nobody thought to check.
Make the stakes real first
Before analyzing anything, answer three questions:
- If you get this right, what could it be worth?
- If you do nothing for six months, what happens?
- How hard would this be to undo?
The third question sets how careful you need to be. An easy-to-reverse decision should be made quickly and adjusted. A nearly irreversible one deserves real scrutiny. Many leaders do it backwards: they agonize over small reversible calls and rush the big permanent ones.
Look at what else moves
Decisions don't stay inside the box where they started. A new pricing model changes how sales gets paid. A key hire changes who other leaders report to. A new market changes what operations has to support.
List the parts of the business this decision will materially affect: revenue, cash, operations, people, customers, partners, your own time. The ones you didn't think of at first are where the surprises come from.
Finish the sentence
Every important decision rests on something you believe. Write it down: "This decision works if..."
Then be honest about how you know. Have you seen it happen? Is there strong evidence? Or is it an educated belief, or mostly an assumption?
Picture a founder deciding to open a second location. The decision works "if the current manager can run both." When asked how they know, the honest answer is that it's a belief, not something they've seen. That's the decision-critical assumption. It doesn't mean don't do it. It means test it first: give the manager full ownership of the first location for 60 days and see what happens to the numbers.
What to do this week
- Pick the biggest decision on your list right now.
- Answer the three stakes questions, especially reversibility.
- List every area it touches, then add two you missed.
- Finish "This decision works if..." and rate how you know.
- If it's mostly assumption, design one small test before you commit.
The Feldman Decision Lab
The Feldman Decision Lab takes a consequential decision through the stakes, the second-order effects, the assumption underneath it and a pressure test, then gives you a decision snapshot and the question you should answer before you commit. No email required.
Five minutes. It won't make the decision for you. It will make it clearer.
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Danny Feldman is a 3× founder and the advisor behind Feldman Advisory. He founded and scaled Stellar to $100M in annual revenue across 15 states, raised $55M+ as a founder, and used AI to double revenue before exiting to private equity. Earlier, he recruited and trained 55,000+ sales reps at Cutco and grew a division from 1 to 58 locations. Operator to operator, he now helps founders of $1M–$20M companies get out of the middle of the business, build the leadership team, and raise capital. Book a 30-minute call →